Election Victory! Trump Wins Another 4 Years
Election Victory, This U.S. presidential election has undoubtedly been a major focus for Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers, not only due to its dramatic and unpredictable process but also because of the importance of the U.S. market for the cross-border e-commerce sector.
According to the 2024 Online Retail Market Outlook released by FTI Consulting, the U.S. online retail market is expected to reach $1.2 trillion in sales in 2024. Statista’s analysis also indicates that the U.S. e-commerce market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.99% from 2024 to 2029, with the market size projected to expand to $1.88 trillion by 2029.
At the same time, the e-commerce user penetration rate is expected to increase significantly, from 84.5% in 2024 to 97.1% by 2029, with the total number of users reaching 333.5 million—more than four times the number of early voters in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
What will another term under Trump mean for cross-border e-commerce?
Tariff Policies
For cross-border industry players, Trump’s first term (2016-2020) was undoubtedly a memorable period, marked by a core strategy focused on the trade war with China. By imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump significantly impacted the structure of U.S.-China trade. This policy directly caused a decrease in the share of China’s exports to the U.S. in its total exports, falling from 19.24% in 2018 to 16.75% in 2019.
During this campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that if he were re-elected, he would impose high tariffs on all foreign goods imported into the U.S. and revoke China’s “most favored nation” trade status. He even proposed tariffs as high as 60% on imports from China.
If these policies are implemented, cross-border e-commerce sellers will see their profit margins significantly squeezed, forcing them to raise product prices. However, this price increase could weaken consumer buying intent, potentially impacting sales performance, especially for e-commerce companies focused on North America, which would face substantial challenges.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and Market Confidence
Trump’s administration may continue to push “America First” policies and strengthen trade protectionism, which will affect global trade flows. Cross-border e-commerce sellers will need to adapt flexibly to changes in trade policies across different countries.
The Trump team previously discussed strategies to devalue the dollar to increase American exports and limit imports. For cross-border sellers, if Trump is re-elected and a dollar devaluation strategy is implemented, they may face considerable exchange losses.
Trump’s policy direction and leadership style add instability to the U.S. economic and political environment. This uncertainty weakens consumer confidence, potentially causing them to reduce spending on non-essential items.
Although Trump has claimed that if he wins, he will issue an executive order on his first day to direct cabinet members to take all necessary policy measures to combat inflation and aim for rapid price reduction, his tariff policies may significantly drive up the prices of imported goods in the U.S. The additional costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, leading to a decline in real household income after inflation adjustments.
According to projections from the Tax Policy Center, the average after-tax income for American households will decrease by $1,800 by 2025.
Moreover, a strong dollar means cross-border e-commerce companies will incur exchange rate losses when converting their dollar earnings back to their local currency, reducing their actual income. Additionally, a stronger dollar might make American consumers more cautious about buying foreign goods, as foreign goods priced in dollars become relatively more expensive, further impacting the performance of the cross-border e-commerce market.
Supply Chain and Logistics Pressure
Facing the pressure of high tariffs, some cross-border e-commerce companies may consider adjusting their supply chain layout by relocating production bases to regions with lower tariffs, such as Southeast Asia or Latin America, and exporting goods from these locations to target markets like North America to avoid tariff costs.Election Victory
The Trump administration not only plans to revoke China’s most-favored-nation status and implement a 60% high tariff, but it also intends to impose additional tariffs on electric vehicles produced in Mexico and sold in the U.S. (by Chinese-funded enterprises). This move indirectly impacts the Latin American supply chain system.
Trump has previously proposed renegotiating trade agreements such as NAFTA, which means that if trade agreement terms change, cross-border e-commerce companies will face the challenge of adapting to new trade terms and shipping regulations. This will undoubtedly increase operational complexity and future uncertainty for businesses.
If stricter management of ports and customs, heightened inspection standards for goods, and other measures are enforced, it will pose challenges to the logistics and transportation efficiency of cross-border e-commerce. This will result in longer customs clearance times, higher logistics costs, and increased potential risks during transport. Businesses may also face stricter trade restrictions and more intensive regulatory measures, further increasing operational uncertainty.
It is worth noting that in this election, the wealthy supporters of the Republican Party are not only concentrated in companies related to Musk but also widely distributed across transportation, finance, and gambling sectors.
In the transportation industry, for instance, influential figures include Timothy Mellon from the railroad industry, shipping giants Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, and the founders of the renowned U.S. shipping company Uline. These industry leaders often display greater enthusiasm and involvement in setting and promoting relevant industry regulations Election Victory .
Increased Uncertainty
If Trump returns to the White House, it will mark his second time as U.S. president, and he will no longer face re-election pressures. This could mean he will act even more unconventionally.
During his presidency, Trump was known for sparking trade disputes, frequently “withdrawing” from alliances, threatening NATO members, and regularly clashing with allies—behaviors that highlighted his preference for unilateralism and the “America First” principle. These actions may further exacerbate global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Election Victory
For cross-border e-commerce companies, it is essential to diversify resources and avoid concentrating all assets in a single market when planning their North American supply chain and market layout. This diversification strategy helps mitigate risks, ensuring that even if the “Western” market faces challenges, the “Eastern” market remains a viable backup option to maintain stable business operations.
